We have finally reached the midpoint of this years baseball season, and its been quite the start! The Home Run Derby was one for the ages….and can we talk about the beast that is Shohei Ohtani?!?! If Mike Trout can get healthy and give the offense a little more pop, they can contend with the Astros for the West and possibly the A.L. crown. But who cares about winning the A.L., how are your bets doing? Over here at The Prop Shop, we have managed to add just under 26% to our account. That 26% may not sound like a lot to you, but let me ask you this….how much has your savings account returned since May 1? What about you IRA/401k? Its only up from here for us.
We have mostly built this return by betting 1st 5 innings (I like putting the priority on the starting pitchers, bull pens always give me a headache), and 1st inning run scored yes or no? I mean my YouTube is called The Prop Shop. I love a good prop bet. I currently do not live in a state where gambling is legal, and do not always have time to drive to Virginia or D.C., so I have a couple of offshore books that I like to use, BET.US and Betonline.ag (click on those links for some great signup bonuses/freeplays/free money). I like these because the results are quick and fast and I can then reinvest those winnings into another play without having to wait three hours for the game to finish.
This brings me back to my original question, How do YOU bet on MLB? We all know that there are a plethora of stats in baseball, too many in my opinion, how do you know which ones are good? Rule number 1 of stat selection, is it predictive? Meaning, does this stat work well at predicting future performance. ERA is probably THE MOST looked at stat for pitchers by new/square batters. This is not predictive stat, it is a stat based on past performance based on every person playing in the game. A stat that I like to use when gauging pitchers SIERA, as the name suggests, Skill Interactive Earned Run Average. This stat focuses on the attributes that a pitcher CAN control, and also makes adjustments for the types of batted balls a pitcher gives up. For instance, certain pitchers are fly ball pitchers (this is important especially in stadiums like Coors Field) vs. being ground ball pitchers. Or power pitchers vs. finesse pitchers. These are all important factors to think about when deciding which team your money will be backing.
How do we measure offense? Pitching is only one side of the story and we need a way to “predict” how an offense will fare against a certain pitcher. Once again, there is no shortage of offensive stats to use. Team batting average used to be the “gold standard” AGES ago. With sabermetrics, even more stats came to be, each claiming to be more “measurable” and valuable than the next. Early on in my sports betting “career”, I used a super long formula utilizing ob%, slg%, at bats, that gave a pretty good indication, but did not account for pitcher handedness, park factors, etc. Currently I use wRC as a base, and can then filter for which arm the pitchers throws with. What is wRC? In its simplest form, wRC or weighted runs created, takes the stat “runs created” and adjusts it for park factors, so guys that play in Petco or Oakland Coliseum are not penalized for the big parks they play and vice versa Trevor Story doesn’t look like the greatest hitter ever due to the fact that he plays at Coors Field. This stat averages out the league as well, so if a player has a wRC of 100, he is considered average. Any number above or below 100, will tell you how much better or worse that player is than average. I like this because lineups change daily, even the order of those lineups change. This allows me to plug and play with the hitters versus the pitcher they are facing that day, and generate what think the score COULD be. Once I have those numbers, I can generate an expected win% and find the value in the line, if there is any at all.
I’ll save the finding of value in the posted lines for another post. Finding value is the key to being successful in sports betting. If you havent already, go on over to YouTube and subscribe to my channel, The Prop Shop. I will be posting more videos beginning tomorrow as well as some free plays!
Let me in the comments what you think and if you want more betting tips and information like this. Also, be on the lookout for my “Top Betting Sites” coming soon. There will be plenty of links to sign up and take advantage of sign up bonuses, reload bonuses, and free plays! Lets PLAY BALL!!
Chris Bassett 